What about paying for tipsters? Best betting tipsters?

Bunny,

Absolutely you’ll get blocked by bookies.

That’s 

A) proof value’s not only important but the most important thing and the bookies know it which is why they do everything to offer none of it.

B) proof to never bet on a bookies site unless you’re abusing them just for sh*ts & gigs. Use an exchange.

Being sick of hearing about value in this game is like working full time in a 9-5 and being sick of hearing about pay day.

Basing “completely legitimate” on a product’s promotional landing page’s claims when they have a huge advertising budget funded by portions of $1000 tip fees and can easily manipulate the first couple of pages of google to have a few fake news/reviews/recommended websites singing their song is nothing but dangerous.

So I’ll be off muttering value, value, value to myself now.

Caan,

Love the coin flip one for an “ah, yeah, I see now” moment. I shut my own mother’s worrying up with that one.

Forum certainly isnt dead yet.

Thanks for response guys. I totally understand coin example, and defyining value like this. 

But what about value in matchup between Federer and Djokovic. They are not head and tails, and not 50-50. Bookies price them according to their models (well…their opinion) Dan Weston, for example, has diff opinion (of course due to his model) There are probably others who use their own models and find value whats for others is not.

Like it or not, value is everything, I totally agree with you guys. I know many websites now, with great results, strike rates,ROI, you name it. All of them offer horse racing or greyhounds tips. But there is one problem.

It is impossible to bet on them prices. By the time you get your pick, price has shortened to not-value position and betting like that it would be profitable in long term.

It is different in football and tennis markets though. Price doesnt move so drasticlly. I even took bit of my spare time (i probably should be doing other stuff) to check BSP. Well they were basiclly same. 

Jay, i dont think i would be ever using that websites services. Just wanted to know your opinions, and find out, if that could ever work out.

Bunny

Perfect example. Last 3 tennis matches I just did.

Barty/Kenin – Barty chance of winning 65-70% (IMO). Value on Kenin. Kenin won in 2 sets.

Halep/Muguruza – Halep chance of winning 55-60% (IMO). No +/- Value. Muguruza won in 2 sets.

Federer/Djokovic – Djokovic chance of winning 75%ish (IMO). Big value on Federer. Djokovic won in 3 sets (5 set match).

If on Barty, you would’ve won 65-70 times out of 100 but be down in long run. If on Kenin would lose 65-70 times out of 100, but would be up in long run.

If on Halep, win 55-60 times out of 100 but break even in long run (-commission). If Muguruza, lose 55-60 times out of 100 and break even in long run (-commission).

But sod the Federer one – not today! 😉

Regardless, when I say “I just did” above, I didn’t bet, I traded,  but always on the side of value or very short term if no +/-value.  And if I was to bet, I’d want much bigger value than there was.

sorry this response overlapped hang on 🙂

every time I post 3 different responses pop up before me. Forum dead my behind.

Yep short answer, Djok should’ve been 1.35ish SP. Not sure of actual BSP as I am currently on australian time cuz of the open and wondering why my eye lids are on fire but think was 1.1-1.2ish at betfair. Dread to think what bookies were.

Trading federer today wasn’t for me as would take a lot to move at those prices. First break of serve did go in federers favour but anticipated stubborn market. 

Backing Federer as a bet would be best option if forced because of value (at betfair) but trouble at that predicted strike rate is variance. Could easily lose many times in a row and end up losing all motivation. Best to stick to a odds range happy with. 

It’s not easy, but can be done. I wrote about it in someone elses post on here titled something like “how do you know you’re betting at value”. 

The dedicated trader that I am has just got back from walking the dog so god knows. As there’s slim pickings today (of higher quality) and I was awake for 46 hours yesterday, I gave myself the day off.

However, this week I’ve been/I’m going back through some videos of Caans as I might try and educate myself this year in the horse side of things to see if I can do some bits and pieces there, particularly for when no tennis in winter (<2 months ish).

What you’ve said above is what you should be looking at though. Stats, history, previous head to heads, current form, injurys, breaks, motivation for that match/tournament etc. Not against paying for that info, much better and cheaper than tips but that’s only to save time, it can be done yourself particularly if familiar with excel. If not familiar – youtube can teach you in a few weeks. Google sheets if free alternative and I think the online version of excel is free too but reduced functions?

The trouble is, and what I hinted about in other post is, value can be slim pickings. It’s different peoples opinions that make up value for others. One group of people might be looking at previous form, another might be looking at longer term, some weirdo might realise blonde players play better on a tuesday. It’s the differing views that create the value.

The things you’re looking at may be long term profitable. Briefly judging by the useless betfair graph and having done 30secs research just to answer this and not to trade with, his SP was probably about right, held up by their head to heads. 

I can see he won the first set so if you thought he was value and were trading then you could’ve hedged/reduced position/removed liability then, or at the break of serve, or even at break points. But need to work on entries and exits for each player. 

Betting isn’t my thing, trading is, so my view on value is, at some point, if all goes to plan, (prize for most commas in a sentence), market will at some point adjust to closer to correct price so I’d rather be on the side of value so when this happens, I’m not getting burnt as much or I’m making more than I should.

However, with tennis, odds move with score, so if value player is never ahead, the most value will do is stop price moving away as fast, it will still move away. So still need to decide best entries/exits for each player.

Best thing to do is your own strategies and keep records, for a year I was doing tiny stakes and recording every single entry and exit, took much longer recording than trading, and if I was entering and exiting too fast that I couldn’t record in time, I’d go through statement after and record them. It’s the only way to see if what you are looking at works for you. 

Then I could do charts to show what was working and what wasn’t. Now I just do a P&L for the day, because I know what works for me so I just make sure things are heading in right direction. If they ever don’t then I’ll reduce and record again to see what’s going on.

It’s a long term game, just because expect to be right say 60% (depending on value and expectation) of time, doesn’t mean you won’t have a losing streak especially at first so that’s why keeping records is so important. Can look back and see the overall P&L and know that things are/are not working long term.

Would love to give an exact list of things I look for and the functions I do with those figures but if we all did the exact same thing they’d be no value.

I think you said above or in another post that you love tennis, then that’s good and can be used, watch matches, record you own thoughts, paper trade/bet, record results – if you’re opinion is showing results then all good. 

But remember, if paper trading betting, if they’re priced at 2.0, need to be correct more than 50% of time (and more again with commission), 1.5 >66.666% etc. The extremes (personally <1.4/>3.5) will give the most erratic results (painful hit when against/long streaks against).