For those serious about Betfair trading or matched betting, understanding implied chance and effectively using Betfair charts are key components to success. Betfair charts provide valuable insights into market dynamics, showing price movements and bet volumes over time. This article will guide you through accessing these charts, interpreting the data, and utilizing the concept of implied chance to enhance your trading strategies.
Accessing Betfair Charts…
Betfair charts are free analytical tools available to all users, offering a visual representation of how prices and volumes have changed over time for various event outcomes. To access these charts, select the event you’re interested in and click on the chart icon next to one of the outcomes. This will open a separate window displaying both a graph and a table of data.
Interpreting Betfair Charts:
Betfair charts display two main types of information: price movements and bet volume.
Price Movements
The price, shown as a red line on the chart, is displayed in decimal odds. This line illustrates how the odds for a specific outcome have changed over time. For instance, the odds for an Blue Beret win might start at 20.0 and drop to 7.2. This movement reflects the market’s opinion on the likelihood of an outcome.
By inverting the y-axis, the chart can also display the ‘Implied % Chance,’ showing the probability of an event occurring as a percentage from 0 to 100%. This conversion is particularly useful for understanding the implied chance of an event, which is calculated by taking 100 and dividing it by the market price.
For example:
– A horse with odds of 1.80 has an implied chance of 100 / 1.8 = 55.55%.
– A horse with odds of 10.00 has an implied chance of 100 / 10 = 10%.
Bet Volume
The grey bars at the bottom represent the volume of matched bets over time. This indicates the size of bets placed and can show trends in betting activity. For example, a significant spike in volume, such as a £3500 bet, indicates strong interest or confidence in a particular outcome at that time.
Utilizing the Data…
The table accompanying the graph shows current prices and the total amount available for back and lay betting at those prices. This information helps traders gauge market liquidity and identify potential opportunities.
Price Trends and Market Movements
One of the simplest uses of Betfair charts is to identify trends in price movements. If you notice that odds are steadily moving in one direction, you might predict that this trend will continue. However, this basic analysis can sometimes fail, so it’s important to combine it with other techniques.
Support and Resistance Points
Look for support and resistance points where the price tends to fluctuate between specific values. These points are where backers and layers find value, creating a trading corridor. For instance, if a horse’s odds fluctuate between 5.0 and 5.4, you can buy at 5.0 and sell at 5.4 to make a profit. This technique, known as scalping, is a common trading strategy.
Spotting Breakouts
Large wagers can cause significant price shifts. After such a shift, the market finds a new equilibrium. Predicting the direction of this breakout can present profitable opportunities. For instance, if a substantial bet causes a horse’s odds to shorten significantly, the price might continue to fall, allowing you to back early and lay later at a profit.
Identifying False Favourites
In horse racing, a ‘false favourite’ is a horse with odds that don’t reflect its true chances of winning. By comparing the total amount bet on the favourite with its price, you can identify these false favourites. Laying false favourites early and backing them later if their odds drift can be a profitable strategy.
Market Percentage and Value…
Market percentage is the sum of the implied winning chances of all participants in an event. A Betfair Exchange market typically adds up to around 100%, indicating that the prices reflect true market opinion. Conversely, traditional bookmaker markets often exceed 100% (usually around 115%), indicating a built-in profit margin for the bookmaker.
What is Value?
Value betting refers to the relationship between a horse’s implied chance as expressed by the market and its real winning chance. A horse is considered to have good value if its market price is higher than its real chance of winning (i.e., the horse is “over the odds”). Conversely, a horse is considered poor value if its market price is lower than its real chance of winning (i.e., the horse is “under the odds”).
For example, a horse priced at 2.80 with an implied winning chance of 35.7% might be considered good value if you believe its real winning chance is 40%. Conversely, a horse priced at 3.00 with an implied winning chance of 33.3% might be considered poor value if you believe its real winning chance is 28.6%.
Profiting from Value:
The Betfair Exchange allows traders to profit from identifying good and poor value opportunities. Horses that are good value (i.e., available at better odds than their real winning chance) are prime candidates for backing. Conversely, horses that are poor value (i.e., under their real price) are good targets for laying.
Traders can enhance their decision-making and profitability by consistently applying these principles and analyzing Betfair charts.
Conclusion: Implied Chance / Betfair Charts
Understanding implied chance and effectively using Betfair charts are crucial for successful Betfair trading. By interpreting price movements, bet volumes, and market percentages, traders can identify value opportunities and make more informed decisions. Always consider the broader context and multiple sources of information to maximize your trading success.
